Welcome back to the Campaign Chronicles! We’re 31 days out from the 2024 Election and have a ton to discuss in this incredibly special Friday edition. This week, we’re focusing on major takeaways from Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate.
Vice Prospects Take the Stage
CBS held its 2024 vice presidential debate this Tuesday at the CBS Broadcast Center in New York City. While VP debates are largely inconsequential, both candidates had something to prove following the debate featuring their running mates; Tim Walz had high expectations set by Vice president Harris while JD Vance had to focus on level-headedness after Donald Trump’s less-than-ideal performance last month.
Ohio senator JD Vance gave a showing that helped explain why the relatively inexperienced Vance was chosen by Trump in the first place: he presented Trumpism with a professional sheen, focusing on aligning the policies with “common sense.” After a series of interviews that could objectively be considered tough watches, especially ones doubling down on the rhetoric of Haitian migrants eating pets, Vance’s presentation strayed from highlighting the most radical aspects of the Trump-Vance ticket.
Vance tried out a new angle on abortion, stating that Republicans need to earn “the American people’s trust back” on reproductive rights. That being said, fact checking is essential with these debates, regardless of how pleasantly civil the event turned out to be.
No, there are not 25 million illegal immigrants committing crimes throughout the United States. A recent report from the Office of Homeland Security places the number of undocumented migrants at around the 11 million mark. Nor has immigration led to an influx of crime. In fact, immigrants are 60% less likely to commit crimes than US citizens, according to a study from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Tim Walz’s performance did not start off as polished as Vance’s. With the first question being about the candidate’s support of Israel carrying out a pre-emptive attack on Iran to prevent nuclear development, the Minnesota governor repeated the campaign’s go-to “Israel’s ability to defend itself is absolutely fundamental” response interrupted by buzz-words. Gov. Walz gained composure as the debate went on, especially when discussing abortion as healthcare and his accomplishments in Minnesota.
Still, claims about Trump intending to carry out a national pregnancy registry via the ultra-conservative policy proposals of Project 2025—where pregnancy tracking is not explicitly mentioned—or that the former president hasn’t paid federal income tax in 15 years, didn’t do much to reinvigorate the momentum for Walz displayed after he was announced as VP candidate.
In a poll carried out by CBS and YouGov directly after the debate, 42% of viewers believed that Vance won the debate, 41% backed Walz as victor and 17% viewed the debate as a tie. 88% of watchers found the tone of the debate to be generally positive. Another interesting takeaway is that 74% of viewers thought Walz sounded more reasonable than extreme, while 65% found Vance to be reasonable.
Polling with the Swing States
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These seven states all have one thing in common, and it’s that they could go either way in this election.
According to data from the Cook Political Report, Harris is leading 5 of these states by the slimmest of margins.
- Arizona: Harris (50%)/Trump (48%)
- Georgia: Trump (49%)/Harris (47%)
- Michigan: Harris (51%)/Trump (48%)
- Nevada: Harris (48%)/Trump (47%)
- North Carolina: Harris (49%)/Trump (49%) – TIED
- Pennsylvania: Harris (50%)/Trump (49%)
- Wisconsin: Harris (49%)/Trump (47%)
With the numbers this close, it is hard to predict the outcome of this election with certainty.
That concludes this edition of the Campaign Chronicles, we’ll be back on Tuesday!
